Boxing experts give their predictions on Saul Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo
Undisputed super-middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (59-2-2, 39KO) defends his belts to undisputed super-welterweight champion Jermell “Iron Man” Charlo (35-1-1, 19KO) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on September 30, live on SHOWTIME PPV.
The Mexican superstar won his last two fights by unanimous decision, which followed a points defeat to undefeated WBO light-heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol last year.
The Louisianan twin hasn’t lost in his last five fights, since his surprise unanimous decision defeat to Tony Harrison in 2018, which he rectified a year later in 2019 with an 11th round KO. Then came a split decision draw with Brian Carlos Castano, which he once again put right in the very next fight via a 10th round stoppage.
Two undisputed champions of the same age with wins, draws and losses on their records makes for an intruiging and close matchup, so BBN asked their panel of experts exactly who they believe will win and why:
Anthony JoshuaTwo-time world heavyweight champion
"With Charlo, they're confident that he'll beat Canelo, and the reason is speed and strength. But the only thing is, Charlo has been out the ring for a long time.
"Canelo's active and busy, but I rate Canelo. They're saying that Canelo is finished but you're only finished when you're done. Credit to Canelo, he's active. He's a serious fighter."
Tim Bradley Two-weight world welterweight champion
"Charlo is no slouch, he knows how to fight. Canel, on the other hand, is the same thing, he's the cash cow of boxing. He has over 16 world championships and that's for a reason.
"There's no doubt that Canelo is more robust in every single way. He's shown, over the years, that he can take a punch. He's been in there with light-heavyweights, so it's going to be tough for Charlo, although he does have reach, he does have boxing ability.
"He has a great jab, really good fundamentals, a great right hand, solid left hook, so it's the full arsenal. But again he's still at 154lbs. Castano was able to back him up and put the pressure on him and that's what Canelo does.
"He's [Canelo] at the tail end of his career, you can tell his body is starting to get tired, you can tell he's less inspired, but he's getting Charlo at the right time. Canelo is crafty and that's the reason why he is this successful and he should win this fight, hands down."
Jeff MayweatherTrainer
"It's a great fight. I think either guy could win.
"Canelo looks like he's on the decline to me. I don't know if the old Canelo show up, where he has the slick movement and things like that. I think that he'll win the fight fairly easy.
"But if the Canelo I see in the very last fight [turns up], then I think Charlo has a great chance of winning.
"But, if not, the old Canelo turns up and has his slickness and doing the things that he used to do then I don't think Charlo has a chance at all."
Bernard Hopkins Former undisputed middleweight champion
"[Charlo] has a legitimate chance. He has an 85% plus chance of beating Canelo. Why? Because, to my understanding, he’s not going in there to prove something, which would fall into Canelo’s hands. But he’s going to go in there and let him know, establish in the first round. That he belongs, he’s tough and he’s going to show him that his time came and gone. Canelo has to be shown that he has slowed up. He ain’t gonna surrender and think, 'I’ve slowed up so I’ll act like it.' He has to be shown, and that has to be early."
Rob SafarUnbeaten cruiserweight
"That's a tough one, I think Canelo is going to pull it off.
"It depends on who you're fighting, how you feel that day, but he's [Charlo] a good fighter, so you never now."
Bryan FloresIBF USBA super-lightweight champion
"That's a great fight. Jermell is an extremely elite athlete, but I have to go with Canelo because I'm Mexican."
Tim RicksonBBN Editor
"Charlo’s sole career defeat to Tony Harrison was a close contest, basically losing to a jab and slick movement. He won't have that same difficulty of chasing after and trying to hit a shadow with Canelo.
"Canelo has only struggled with defensive movers, like in his losses to Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol. Again, he won't have this trouble with Charlo.
"Both these boxers are aggressive, front foot fighters and excellent counter-punchers. They have each experienced wins, losses and draws, and are each undisputed in their respective weight categories.
"Charlo has proven his chin against Brian Carlos Castano and Canelo has done the same after 36 rounds with Gennadiy Golovkin. However, Charlo took Castano's shots at 154lbs, so will it be the same up at 168lbs? Charlo got a great jab, huge right hand and knockout left hook, so he's got the full set. Canelo is probably one of the best all-rounders of this generation, so it's such a close call.
"When it comes to fighting on the inside, where we have seen Charlo land that fight-ending left hook before, I actually think Canelo has the better inside game, which could prove key.
"Personally, I think it comes down to who implements their game plan perfectly on the night and who can get into their rhythm first. Whoever makes their assessments quickest and adapts first, I believe will be the boxer who gets into their stride and controls the contest.
"They are closely matched, but I have to go with the more experienced man who has spent longer on the biggest stages – Saul Alvarez to win on points in a Canelo-Golovkin style fight."
Tristan KalkreuthCruiserweight prospect
"Charlo got that punching power. Charlo has got that dog in him; Canelo does too, but I'm leaning more towards Charlo."
Thane Wadams Unbeaten cruiserweight
"I think Charlo's going to take it. He's just on another level.
"Canelo is one of the faces of boxing, even though Gervonta Davis is kind of taking over this new era, but I think Charlo is definitely going to take this fight.
"I think it's probably going to go all 12 rounds, but I think he [Charlo] has it."
Vaughn AlexanderMiddleweight title contender
"It's a 50-50 fight. That's gonna be a hell of a fight.
"Canelo got good inside game but he gon' have to get past Charlo's long arms. Charlo, he can use his reach good, he's strong, he got a good jab. It's toss up, for me."
Taino Sosa Unbeaten welterweight
"I want to give it to Charlo. Canelo, I think, is on a downhill.
"Charlo got something to prove, Canelo hasn't been looking too good in his past few outings, he hasn't been ageing too well. That's why I give it more to the youth, so I give it to Charlo on that one."
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